Prices aren't crashing. They're holding flat.

"I heard prices are falling."

They've eased a little, but they haven't fallen off a cliff. According to Las Vegas Realtors, the median existing single-family home sold for $470,000 in September, exactly the same as a year earlier.

That's not what a crash looks like. It's what a cooling market looks like.

Homes are sitting longer, and buyers know it

What has changed is supply. We're at about five months of supply, up from about four a year ago, and total listings have topped 10,000 for the first time in more than a decade.

When I pulled the MLS on October 29, there were just under 5,000 homes listed at $650,000 or less. 3,390 of them had been on the market 30 days or more.

More homes and fewer buyers who can afford today's payments add up to one thing: a negotiating market.

Rates are high, and probably staying that way for now

"Should I just wait for rates to come down?"

On October 28, the Federal Reserve held its key rate at 3.75% to 4%. But two members voted to raise rates, because inflation ran 3.7% in September, and markets now expect a likely hike in December.

The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates directly, but nothing points to a big drop soon. I don't recommend planning your move around one.

Price drops are giving you room to negotiate

Listings are lasting longer, so sellers are adjusting. One local count of every active listing in September found about 42% had cut their price, with a median cut of $20,000.

Homes that have been sitting 30+ days are usually where you'll find the most flexibility. Sellers on the market right now often need to sell, and they're more willing to talk.

The seller may help pay your costs, or lower your rate

A seller concession is money the seller agrees to put toward the buyer's costs. In Las Vegas, it's become the norm. The Las Vegas Review-Journal reported that nearly two out of three local sales in August included seller concessions.

A permanent rate buydown typically costs about 1% of the loan amount for each quarter-point you lower the rate. So a seller credit of $10,000 to $15,000 can make a real difference in your monthly payment.

You may need far less cash than you think

"I can't buy until I save $30,000."

Maybe not. Nevada's Home Is Possible program offers eligible buyers up to 5% of the loan amount toward the down payment and closing costs. You don't have to be a first-time buyer, but income limits apply and you'll complete a homebuyer education course.

Every situation is different. But it's worth finding out what you qualify for before assuming you need years of savings.

Date the home, marry the rate

"Marry the home, date the rate."

The idea is to stretch for your dream home now and refinance when rates drop. In this market, I think it's some of the worst advice out there. Rates have stayed high for years. If the refinance never comes, you're stuck with a payment that's too high.

Rates near 7% aren't unusual historically. The real problem is that prices climbed fast while paychecks didn't keep up. I'm seeing buyers need two or three co-signers just to qualify.

And a quick word on new construction: builders are advertising rates in the 5s through their own lenders, which can be a good fit. But in my experience, new homes in communities where the builder is still selling tend to appreciate more slowly, and property taxes are often higher because a new home starts fresh at today's value. New builds make the most sense if you plan to stay a long time. Read the fine print, too, since many builder rates are temporary buydowns.

Your interest rate isn't your whole budget

"I can't move. I have a 3% rate from 2020."

That rate is valuable. But it's only one number. Look at your total monthly life cost: car payment, credit cards, utilities. In an older Las Vegas home, summer electric bills alone can be brutal.

Then look at your equity. Using part of it to pay off high-interest debt can keep your total monthly outlay close to where it is now, even with a higher mortgage rate.

We have access to a total-life-cost calculator for exactly this conversation, so you can see your real numbers before deciding anything.

The right price on day one beats chasing the market down

Buyers are watching every dollar, and there's a gap between what sellers ask and what homes sell for. At the end of September, one local broker noted the median list price was about $45,000 higher than the median sales price.

What's working for my sellers right now:

• Price right, or slightly under the competition, from day one.
• Offer a concession up front, like a rate buydown. Buyers shop by monthly payment, and it can protect your price better than a cut.
• Make it show well. You're competing with other sellers and with shiny new builds.